The folding cartonboard market is forecast to grow by an annual average of 6.4% over the next five years, according to new research from Smithers.
Consumption of paperboard formats is projected to reach 56.8 million tons worldwide in 2023, increasing to 77.3 million tons in 2028 – giving the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stated above.
The figures are included in Smithers’ latest market report, titled ‘The Future of Folding Cartons to 2028’. The value of cartonboard is also forecast to grow, from around $60 billion to almost $80 billion (at constant prices), which is equivalent to a CAGR of 5.7%.
Some of the projected growth is attributed to the replacement of plastics with paper technologies, driven by legislation such as the forthcoming revision of the Packaging and Paper Waste Directive in Europe.
In terms of applications, the Smithers research indicates that dry foods, confectionary, healthcare, personal care and chilled food are expected to be the fastest growing sectors, while luxury packaging remains strong. Booming demand for ecommerce formats is transforming into accelerated demand for microflute packaging, with outer layers of cartonboard applied to single-face corrugated under-layers.
Smithers estimates that nearly 70% of all cartonboard packaging carries a coating of some form, and currently 90% of these coatings by weight are thermoplastic polymers or aluminium. The development of functional coatings that do not compromise recyclability is coming at a premium.
There is clear pain in input costs for cartonboard manufacturers, with raw material prices having increased by more than 25% in 2022, following a 14% increase in 2021. In the short term, this is ‘creating a febrile marketplace’, says Smithers, even as new folding carton assets come online. In that regard, the report says that more than six million tons of production capacity entered the market between 2020 and 2022.
